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"If this one guy got hit by a bus, the world's software would fall apart."
(Funny? Yes. But the reality is far worse...)
April 04, 2024
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  • How many critical software packages are maintained by a small, unpaid team (or, worse, a single person)?
  • What happens when that person gets bored with the project... or decides to do something malicious (as in the case with a recent backdoor in the XZ compression tool)... or... gets hit by a bus?

These are not only fair questions to ask... but critical as well.

The reality is that we're not simply talking about a handful of key software packages here -- the entirety of our modern computing infrastructure is built on top of thousands of projects (from software packages to online services) that are built, maintained, and run entirely by one person (or, when we're lucky, 2 or 3 people).

One wrong move and the Jenga tower that is modern computing comes crashing down.

Source: xkcd

Just to give you an idea of how widespread -- and dire -- this situation truly is, I would like to call your attention to two projects that most people don't even think about... but that are critical to nearly every computer system in use today.

The TZ Database

Dealing with Timezones in software can be tricky.  Many rules, many time zone details.  As luck would have it, a standard database (TZ Database) was built to make it easier for software projects to get those details right.

And, every time those timezone details (across the world) are changed -- something which can happen several times per year, often with only a few days notice -- that database needs to be updated.

What happens if those details are not updated... if the timezone data is incorrect?

At best?  A few minor scheduling inconveniences.  At worst?  Absolute mayhem... computer-wise.  Times can become significantly out of sync between systems.  Which can mess up not only scheduling (an obvious issue), but security features as well (as some encryption tools require closely synced time).

To give you an idea of how widespread the TZ Database is, here is just a teeny tiny fraction of the number of software projects which rely upon it:

  • Every BSD system: FreeBSD, OpenBSD, Solaris
  • macOS & iOS
  • Linux
  • Android
  • Java, PHP, Perl, Ruby, Python, GCC, Javascript
  • PostrgreSQL, MongoDB, SQL Server

Yeah.  It's basically a list of "all software".  And that's just a sample of the software which heavily relies on the TZ Database for making sure timing (and everything that is time-critical) is correct.

Now.  With something this absolutely critical, surely a highly paid team of people -- from multiple companies -- is responsible for keeping it updated... right?

Oh, heavens, no.

Two people.  Two!

While the database itself has been officially published on ICANN (the "Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers") servers for the last few years, only 2 people actually maintain the TZ Database.

SQLite

Did you know that SQLite is the most used database system in the entire world?  More than MySQL, MS SQL Server, and all the rest of them.  Good odds, SQLite is used on more systems than all other database systems in the world... combined.

In fact, SQLite is a critial component in the following systems:

  • Android, iOS, macOS, & Windows
  • Firefox, Chrome, & Safari
  • Most set top boxes and smart TVs
  • An absolutely crazy number of individual software packages (from Dropbox to iTunes)

Now, ready for the fact you knew was coming?

SQLite is maintained by... 3 guys.

Not "3 lead developers who oversee an army of open source contributors"... just 3 guys.  Total.  And they don't accept public patches or fixes.

"SQLite is open-source, meaning that you can make as many copies of it as you want and do whatever you want with those copies, without limitation. But SQLite is not open-contribution."

A piece of software that is practically the cornerstone of modern computing.  Trillions of dollars worth of systems relying upon it -- every second of every day.  3 guys.

Corporations rest on the shoulders of... a couple volunteers

Add those two projects together.  5 guys, in total, are responsible for Timezones and SQLite databases.  Software and data used on practically every computer on the planet.

And that's just the tip of the iceberg.  Critical projects -- often with small teams of (more often than not) unpaid voluneers -- form the core of the vast majority of major software projects.  Including commercial ones.

ImagemagickXZFFmpeg?

You'll find those at the heart of more systems than you can count.  Good odds you use all three, every day, and don't even notice it.

And, as the small team behind FFmpeg pointed out in a recent X post, getting those large corporations to contribute -- in any meaningful way -- can be like pulling teeth:

The xz fiasco has shown how a dependence on unpaid volunteers can cause major problems. Trillion dollar corporations expect free and urgent support from volunteers.

 

Microsoft / Microsoft Teams posted on a bug tracker full of volunteers that their issue is "high priority"

 

 

After politely requesting a support contract from Microsoft for long term maintenance, they offered a one-time payment of a few thousand dollars instead.

 

This is unacceptable. 

 

We didn't make it up, this is what Microsoft actually did:
https://trac.ffmpeg.org/ticket/10341#comment:4

 

The lesson from the xz fiasco is that investments in maintenance and sustainability are unsexy and probably won't get a middle manager their promotion but pay off a thousandfold over many years.

 

But try selling that to a bean counter

In short: Microsoft wanted to benefit from the (free) work done by FFmpeg... but was only willing -- at most -- to toss a few peanuts at the team.  And, even then, that (mildly insulting) offer of meager support was only done when Microsoft needed assistance.

A few parting thoughts...

There are valuable lessons to be learned from all of this -- including the need for real, meaningful support (by large corporations) of the projects they rely so heavily upon.

But, for now, I'd like to leave you with a few observations.

  1. Corporations don't hesitate to throw large sums of money at Tech Trade Organizations (such as The Linux Foundation -- which brings in hundreds of Millions every year from companies like Microsoft)... yet they are hesitant to provide significant funding to projects they rely directly upon to ship their own, often highly profitable, products (see the projects listed earlier in this article).
  2. How many of these smaller projects -- which Linux desktops and servers rely entirely upon -- receive regular funding from The Linux Foundation (or companies which fund The Linux Foundation)?  I'll answer that question for you: Next to none.
  3. Even high profile Open Source projects -- such as KDE or GNOME -- struggle to bring in enough funding to afford two full time developers on payroll.
  4. We have avoided catastrophe, thus far, through dumb luck.  The recent XZ backdoor, for example, was found by a lone developer who happened to notice a half second slowdown... and happened to have the time (and interest... and experience) to investigate further.  The odds of that being discovered before significant harm was done... whew!... slim.  So much dumb luck.

Go take a look at that XKCD comic at the begining of this article again.  Funny right?  And it makes a solid point.

You know what's terrifying, though?  The reality is far more precarious. 

There's not simply one project -- by one guy -- holding all of modern computing up.

There's thousands of projects.  Each made by one guy.  And hundreds of those projects (at least) are load-bearing.

Dumb luck only lasts for so long.

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Linux Foundation Drops Linux Spending to Historic Lows in 2024
Plus: Skyrocketing revenue, and no mention of "Diversity" or "Climate Change".

The Linux Foundation, earlier today, released their 2024 Annual Report.  And, hoo boy, is it a doozy.

The short-short version: Massive increase in revenue (now close to $300 Million Dollars), with spending on Linux continuing to drop to historically low numbers.

And, in a dramatic departure from previous years, almost zero discussion of politically charged topics (such as Diversity, Equity, Inclusion, & Climate Change).

Let's start with the numbers.

 

Skyrocketing Revenue

 

First and foremost, it's worth pointing out that -- as of this year -- revenue for The Linux Foundation is closing in on 1/3rd of a Billion Dollars annually.

 

While The Linux Foundation may technically be a "non profit", those numbers would make many "for profit" corporations blush.  Massive, steady income growth.

Where does the largest bulk of that revenue come from?  Corporate "membership" dues, naturally.  To the tune of over $125 Million USD.

 

With the highest paying corporate members being the likes of Meta, Microsoft, Oracle, Samsun, Red Hat (IBM), Huawei, and the like.

 

 

These corporations pay a premium to have a seat on The Linux Foundation Board of Directors.  Which, it should be pointed out, consists of over 70% GPL violators.

 

 

Spending on Linux

 

One of the peculiar facts about The Linux Foundation is how surprisingly little of their income they spend on... Linux.

And, perhaps even more peculiar still, is the fact that the percentage of their revenue spent on Linux appears to decrease every year.

In 2021, The Linux Foundation spent roughly 3.4% of their revenue on their namesake project.  As of 2024... that number appears to be down to 2.3%.

 

 

And this isn't simply a matter of overall percentages going down (while revenue rises).  Spending on the Linux Kernel is down, year on year, in terms of actual US Dollars as well.

 

 

In fact, the amount currently spent on "Corporate Operations" for The Linux Foundation... is roughly 3 times that of what is spent on the Linux kernel.

As time goes on -- and spending numbers become finalized -- we are gaining an increasingly clear picture of the spending priorities of The Linux Foundation.

 

No Diversity in 2024?

 

In the previous annual report (2023), "Diversity, Equity, & Inclusion" were a critical component.

In the 2023 report:

  • "Diversity" was mentioned 34 times
  • "Inclusion" 17 times.
  • With the general "DEI" topic -- including "LGBTQ" issues -- being a critical component throughout the report.  Page after page of DEI.

This year, in the 2024 report, the words "Diversity", "Equity", and "Inclusion" are never used.  Not once.

Well.  Once.  Barely.  On the second to the last page, in a footnote, you find the following statement: "75% of [travel] funding went to diverse community members."  That, right there is the sum total of discussion around "diversity".

In fact, the "LGBT" acronym is also never used in the most recent report (another significant change from previous years).

This appears to mark a dramatic shift, away from "DEI", for The Linux Foundation.  At least in terms of messaging.

 

No Climate Change, Either?

 

The 2024 Linux Foundation annual report also contains absolutely no reference to "Climate Change".

"Wait, why would the Linux Foundation be talking about Climate Change," you ask?

Well.  Last year, in 2023, the annual report was filled to the brim with Climate Change -- with 37 distinct references and over 10 pages focused on the topic.

That focus appears to no longer be a priority for The Linux Foundation.

 

The Right to Fork

 

One of the most prominent new topics of the 2024 report was "the right to fork".  Something previous annual reports stayed clear of almost entirely.

 

“The right to fork open source code is at the core of open source licensing. All open source licenses grant the right to fork their code, that is to start a new development effort using an existing code as its base. Thus, code forking represents the single greatest tool available for guaranteeing sustainability in open source software.

 

In addition to bolstering program sustainability, code forking directly affects the governance of open source initiatives. Forking, and even the mere possibility of forking code, affects the governance and sustainability of open source initiatives on three distinct levels: software, community, and ecosystem.”

 

This is particularly interesting, given the stated intention for Russia to hard-fork Linux over the recent ban of Russian programmers from being official kernel maintainers.

 

Other Oddities

 

A few other facts which are worth noting from the 2024 Annual Report:

  • Neither the Executive Director, nor the Board Chair -- in their several pages long opening messages -- mentions the Linux Kernel.  Nor desktop, server, or mobile Linux.  Strange, right?
  • The 2024 Annual Report is only 45 pages long.  Compared to the 2023 report, which clocks in at 160 pages.
  • There is absolutely no mention of the mass banning of Russian developers during 2024.
  • Nor of the various other developers banned from the Linux Kernel this year.

What does all of this mean?  Will the decreasing spending on Linux continue into 2025?  Will the decreased emphasis on messaging around "DEI" issues translate to real-world changes?  Will the "right to fork" emphasis continue if Russia follows through with their proposed Linux kernel fork?

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